Why has Luka Doncic Been Shooting Technical Free Throws?

Is Jason Kidd an idiot, or a visionary?

On January 12, 2023, the Dallas Mavericks won a double overtime thriller against the Los Angeles Lakers 119-115. This game had much to talk about, such as 7 missed calls and non-calls by the refs in The Last Two Minute Report or Luka Doncic extending the game with a clutch three in the 4th quarter and in overtime, but something else caught my attention the most. With 2:50 left in overtime, Russell Westbrook was called for a flagrant foul on Luka Doncic, giving the Mavericks a chance to extend their lead. Luka Doncic went to the line and promptly missed both free throws. Stan Van Gundy immediately questioned the thought process of Jason Kidd as he could’ve chosen anyone to shoot these free throws. Rob Perez tweeted this shortly after as well:

They bring up a very valid point. Why is Luka Doncic, a career 73.6% free throw shooter, shooting these free throws? Is he stat padding? Is he trying to gain confidence at the line? Does Jason Kidd know the rules?

Over the past couple of years, I had settled into the idea of Luka Doncic shooting these technical free throws. Maybe I was just a card carrying Mavs Truther, but I figured this decision would improve Luka's confidence at the free throw line, and maybe even have a positive effect on his field goal percentage. I applauded Jason Kidd for trying a different tactic to get his best player going, unorthodox as it may be. The only problem is, I had no hard data or proof to back up my thoughts. So here we are. The goal of this study is to determine two things:

1. Has shooting technical free throws improved Luka Doncic’s free throw and field goal percentage?

2. Has this been a good or bad decision by Jason Kidd?

2021-2022 Season

Even though we are approaching the 2023 All-Star break, we must look back to last season for some important information. In the summer of 2021, the Dallas Mavericks and Rick Carlisle agreed to part ways, opening up the door for the hiring of Jason Kidd. Different coaches have different strategies, so it is important to start from the beginning of Jason Kidd’s tenure as coach to try and identify the logic behind this strategy.

Before breaking down the information, I’d like to share the free throw data for the Dallas Mavericks for the 2021-2022 season.

Shooter	Makes	Attempts	FT%	Regular Season %
Reggie Bullock	23	28	82%	83%
Kristaps Porzingis	15	17	88%	87%
Luka Doncic	10	14	71%	74%
Jalen Brunson	9	12	75%	84%
Davis Bertans	2	2	100%	80%
Tim Hardaway Jr.	1	2	50%	76%
Frank Ntilikina	1	1	100%	100%

Jason Kidd held an open audition to see who would shoot free throws at the beginning of the season. In the first six games that there was a technical foul, Kidd used five different shooters: Jalen Brunson, Luka Doncic, Reggie Bullock, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kristaps Porzingis, in respective order. After 6 games, Porzingis became the designated free throw shooter. If KP was not in, the second option was Reggie Bullock. If neither KP or Bullock were in, Brunson would shoot the free throw.

So how did Luka end up shooting so many technical free throws this season? On February 11, 2022, the Dallas Mavericks traded Porzingis to the Wizards, opening up the designated technical free throw shooter spot. Luka shot 10 of his 14 technical free throws after the Porzingis trade. Of those 10, he made 7- That’s not too bad… But it still begs the question. If Reggie Bullock was the #2 guy in terms of FT%, why is he not shooting all of these free throws?

Well, post KP trade, Bullock went 9 for 14 from the free throw line on technicals… a whopping 64%. After so many misses, Kidd decided to open up the audition again. So why not Jalen Brunson? He shot 84% from the free throw line during the season. Shouldn’t the next best free throw shooter be the next option?

This is where my hypothesis kicks in: Jason Kidd used Luka Doncic as a technical free throw shooter to boost his confidence at the line, as well as his overall game. There are no upfront statistics that give a reason why Luka Doncic should be shooting these free throws. I don’t think any coach would give any thought to letting a career 73.6% free throw shooter shoot these. But rather than using a statistical approach, Kidd uses a mental approach. Every shooter understands the importance of seeing one go in, therefore, if Luka sees a free throw go in, this will help him out on his next shots.

I needed to test out my hypothesis, so I broke down every single technical free throw that Luka Doncic shot for the season. Then I tracked what he was doing before the technical foul, what he did immediately after the technical foul (until he was subbed out or the quarter ended) and how he performed the rest of the game. My findings are listed below.

So what are the main findings here?

1. Luka’s Field Goal Percentage increased 10 percentage points for the rest of the game after shooting a technical free throw (from 40% to 50%) and his Free Throw Percentage decreased 8 percentage points for the rest of the game after shooting a technical free throw (from 78% to 70%).

2. Luka’s Field Goal Percentage increased 14 points immediately after shooting a technical free throw (from 40% to 54%) and his Free Throw Percentage increased 4 percentage points immediately after shooting a technical free throw (78% to 82%).

3. There are no real differences in the Field Goal and Free Throw percentages following a make or a miss.

I think there are some eye-opening numbers. Here we see evidence for statistical increases everywhere except for his free throw percentage following the technical free throw. So has this really ended up helping Luka’s free throw percentage? Has this strategy helped or hurt the Dallas Mavericks? Is Jason Kidd okay sacrificing 1 point on missed free throws (78% to 70%) for 2 or 3 points on made field goals (40% to 50%)? Although many of us would like to see Luka make more free throws, this data indicates that a technical free throw helps Luka score the ball more efficiently. I understand it’s not reflective in the free throw percentage, but to see a 10 percentage point increase in Field Goal Percentage is statistically relevant. However, for the sake of the argument let’s take this season with a grain of salt and let’s see if the data holds true in the following season. A bigger sample size may produce different results.

2022-2023 Season

Once again, before breaking down free throw information, I’d like to share the free throw data for the 2022-2023 season.

Shooter	Makes	Attempts	FT%	Season %
Luka Doncic	12	15	80%	73%
Reggie Bullock	5	9	56%	65%
Spencer Dinwiddie	1	1	100%	82%
Jaden Hardy	1	1	100%	85%
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0	1	0%	77%

*Data good before 1/12/2023. Since 1/13, Luka Doncic has gone 1 for 4 from the line including the 2 flagrant free throws from the Lakers game

To start off the season, Reggie Bullock remained the go-to technical free throw shooter, with Luka shooting them when Bullock was out. As we can see here, Reggie Bullock has really struggled from the line this year, both on technical free throws and in general. Kidd could select Dinwiddie as the free throw shooter, as he’s been shooting 9 percentage points better than Luka for the season. But we’re going to revisit the hypothesis of this study: Jason Kidd uses Luka Doncic as a technical free throw shooter to boost his confidence at the line and his overall game as well. While we saw evidence of this last year, let’s see if the results stay the same. The data is listed below:

Now, I know no one likes looking at a graph, so I’ll give you my main takeaways from the data seen above.

1. Luka’s Field Goal Percentage increased 3 percentage points for the rest of the game after shooting a technical free throw (from 46% to 49%) and his Free Throw Percentage increased 4 percentage points for the rest of the game after shooting a technical free throw (from 74% to 78%).

2. Luka’s Field Goal Percentage decreased 2 points immediately after shooting a technical free throw (from 46% to 44%) and his Free Throw Percentage increased 20 percentage points immediately after shooting a technical free throw (74% to 94%).

3. There are no real differences in the Field Goal and Free Throw percentages following a make or a miss.

This sample proved even more eye-opening than last year’s data. We see an overall increase in his field goal percentage and increases in his free throw percentage. While we only saw a Field Goal Percentage increase last season, we are seeing both percentages increase this year. The data once again suggests that a technical free throw makes Luka Doncic more efficient.

With the recent acquisition of Kyrie Irving, an 88% free throw shooter from the line this season, I think Luka’s time as the designated free throw shooter may be over. But I believe more coaches should look into doing something like this. Sacrificing an occasional immediate point is actually okay as long as data suggests that this player will increase their percentages shortly after and over the rest of the game, like we see here with Luka Doncic. So is Jason Kidd still crazy for doing this, or is he a genius? Is Kidd aware of the effects this is having on his star, or has he just been lucky the entire time? I’m not quite sure. What I do know is that, whatever the reason, I agree with his decision so long as it means the Mavs stack more wins.