Who the Hell is Keegan Murray?

Scouting the Weirdest Prospect in Years

Throughout the draft process, I have been confounded by one name. It’s not Shaedon Sharpe, the never-before-seen Kentucky player who reclassified after being named the #1 prospect in the class. Nor is it Chet Holmgren, the lanky big out of Gonzaga that many see as a significant boom or bust prospect. No, while these guys are not sure things, there is at least a model for their evaluation. But no such model exists with Iowa Forward Keegan Murray.

Murray represents the challenging task of being an NBA scout perhaps more than any prospect in the last few cycles. He is unique to be sure – for one, 6’8 sharpshooters don’t grow on trees. Even fewer are those who can rip down rebounds, take them coast to coast, and finish over defenders with a euro step. Murray averaged over 23 a game in a loaded Big Ten conference with noteworthy performances against the best of the best. His defensive numbers – a steal and a half to go with nearly two blocks a game – might have you thinking he’s some hybrid of Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

You see, Keegan Murray is your dad’s favorite NBA draft prospect. In college he had monster numbers and he won games. He had flamethrower performances (8-10 from three against Indiana in the Big Ten tournament) and that was enough to convince people like your dad that this kid could be the next big thing. And maybe he is.

But scouts don’t see him that way. In mock drafts Keegan Murray is usually slotted anywhere from fifth to seventh, and most commonly at sixth (behind the prohibitive top three bigs, Jaden Ivey, and the aforementioned Shaedon Sharpe). The media is building out a pretty concise draft profile on Murray too:

“He projects as one of the prospects most readily available to be a difference-maker for an NBA team” per Kyle Boone of Cbssports. The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor compared him to Al Horford, the do-it-all veteran forward lacing up for the title-contending Boston Celtics. By the looks of it, media scouts don’t seem to see many weaknesses in his game, which is almost always draft-speak code for “high floor, low ceiling” player – the sort of guy who can plug into any team and contribute today, but may not ever have any All-Star selections to his name. In a word, scouts see Keegan Murray as “safe”.

But herein lies the conundrum in Keegan Murray’s evaluation. Say you are the Indiana Pacers, who currently hold the sixth overall pick in the draft. You currently roster blossoming PG Tyrese Haliburton, perennially trade-baited Myles Turner, and future Laker Buddy Hield. Chris Duarte showed promise last year, but the soon-to-be 25-year-old rookie seems more or less maxed out on his potential already. How do you, with good conscience, take the “safest” guy in the draft at #6?

Well, here I want to practice evaluating a player as if I were the Pacers, or really any team before or after them for that matter. I want to examine Murray wholistically as a prospect: From his strengths to his weaknesses on both sides of the ball. I want to show you exactly how Keegan Murray could fit into an NBA team, and whether or not your dad is right about what he could become.

We’ve already discussed a bit about Keegan Murray’s draft profile, but let’s fill out all of the numbers here for good measure. Murray averaged 23.5 points along with 8.7 rebounds and 1.5 assists for the Iowa Hawkeyes last year. He shot almost 40% from three to go with 75% from the free throw line – elite numbers for a guy his height. Not to mention Murray shot over 55% from the field last year on insanely high usage, which all compounded into a jaw dropping 37.8 PER for the entire season. If the numbers weren’t enough for you, maybe the accolades will do: Karl Malone Power Forward of the Year winner, Big Ten tournament Most Outstanding Player, and finalist for Naismith National Player of the Year. He led the Hawkeyes to a 5th seed in the tournament before being upset by #12 Richmond in the first round.

Murray’s scoring profile is interesting to lay out because it shows you how uniquely he got his buckets in college. Take his 37-point game against Nebraska, for example. Here is the breakdown of how he got his points (free throw points are simply added to whatever method he got to the line with):

Keegan Murray vs Nebraska: 37 points (15-19 FG)

Transition: 13 points

9 from taking it coast to coast himself

4 from running the floor in transition

Halfcourt: 18 points

9 from halfcourt three pointers

6 from putbacks after offensive rebounds

4 from post up opportunities

3 from cutting in the halfcourt or receiving dump offs

2 from off the dribble opportunities

Now compare those numbers with Auburn’s Jabari Smith against that same Nebraska team last year:

Jabari Smith vs Nebraska: 21 points (7-13FG)

Transition: 6 points

6 from running the floor in transition

Halfcourt: 15 points

9 from halfcourt three pointers

6 from off the dribble opportunities

What stands out to you? For me it’s two things: His coast-to-coast ability (9 points to Jabari’s 0), and his three triples in the halfcourt (matching Smith’s own total on less attempts). First, let’s take a look at Murray’s transition game.

Keegan Murray is able to get out in transition with the ball in his hands a lot because he is usually on the other end of defensive rebounds or steals. This first one is a perfect example:

The crazy part of this is that Murray doesn’t even have a numbers advantage in transition. He grabs the ball off of the rim and immediately puts it on the floor, surveying the defense. He isn’t a freak athlete, but at 6’8 he can handle the ball really well, a la Pascal Siakam. I think he might even be a smoother athlete than Siakam, as you can see in this next clip, where he’s able to burst through the back-turned defense to the basket:

This next clip shows how Murray understands space in transition, using the opposing players’ confusion to his advantage by slithering through the chaos. Watch how, as #24 for Iowa fills his lane in transition, Murray attacks the backside of his trailing defender. This attack allows him to get by his own guy, who thinks his teammate can at least bump Murray en route to the basket. But Murray’s burst to the left is too much for Nebraska’s #13, who can do nothing but take the contact. Nothing was called, but it probably should have been a foul:

This last clip shows Murray snagging a botched pass and immediately running with the numbers advantage. He hesitates for just enough time to freeze the defender into thinking he might pass to the guy behind him. From there he attacks the shorter defender’s outside foot, giving him no option but to swipe at the ball. One swift move over #10’s head, and the play is over five seconds after it began:

The craziest part of all of this? All four of these plays happened in a two-minute period, and in between the 2nd and 3rdone Murray splashed a spot up three in the halfcourt. It was a two-minute period wherein Murray completely decided every facet of the game: He was the one ripping the ball down quickly and pushing the pace. He was the one stealing the ball and putting downhill pressure on the defense, while also stretching them out to the perimeter and making them respect his three-pointer. In a two-minute period, Keegan Murray gave Nebraska head coach (and former NBA coach) Fred Hoiberg twenty different things to talk to his team about. And after this two-minute period? Murray still scored 27 more points.

Models exist for players with this type of gravity. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the architype – a player who can do everything Murray does here but at seven feet tall and through NBA level defenders, with all due respect to Nebraska’s team. I already mentioned Pascal Siakam as another comparison, albeit Murray seems a little smoother but not quite as bouncy as Siakam. I even see a little bit of Spurs forward Keldon Johnson to the way Murray uses pacing and force to finish in transition.

Keegan Murray’s transition profile is one of the best in the draft. While we usually think of elite athletes as guys who can “push the pace”, it’s far more often those players that possess the ability to rebound the ball and put it on the floor quickly. While Jalen Green’s burst might make us believe he can sprint the ball down the floor, it doesn’t happen nearly as much as we’d think. No, Murray looks a bit more like the other top pick last year, Cade Cunningham, who’s head is always up and attacking open space. He’s not the passer Cade is, but he controls of the game’s pace in a similar manner.

Now, all of the guy’s I’ve compared Keegan Murray to thus far are probably a little more athletic than the Iowa forward, but he has something they do not: a 40% three-point strap, which can be used in high volume without sacrificing the other positives of his game.

I’ve read some people doubt Murray’s shooting numbers. Kevin O’Connor, for instance, had this to say in his evaluation under the “minus” column in his Big Board:

“He’s a good-but-not-great shooter, and he’s still relatively unproven. He's a career 73.2 percent shooter from the line, but hit just 29.6 percent of his shots from 3 last season compared to 38 percent this season.”

Well, whatever issues KOC sees with Keegan Murray’s shooting profile, I don’t. For starters we can begin with the free throw numbers. O’Connor brings up free throw percentage because, usually, a truly elite shooter will have both elite percentages beyond the arc as well as at the line. Those numbers are usually an easy clue to whether a guy’s mechanics are sound and the muscle memory has set in. Usually a good free throw shooter means that the building blocks are in place to be a good three-point shooter at the next level.

To begin, and I don’t know if this is because KOC’s stats aren’t updated, but Murray actually shot a little over 75% for his career in college. It may be valuable to add that Murray set his high school’s all-time record for free throw percentage, too (.876). He was 4% better than Chet Holmgren this last season, who O’Connor himself even describes as having “touch from the line”. What’s more? Murray did that on almost 100 more attempts than the Gonzaga big. His FT% is also better than Paolo Banchero, and only 5% worse than Jabari Smith, who’s entire #1 pick candidacy is built around his jump shooting ability. Given that Murray took more free throws than any of them last season, I’d say that that his numbers from the line are pretty proven.

The second part of O’Connor’s evaluation, that his freshman year should count against him, seems overly nitpicky to me. Let’s compare his numbers to that of Tari Eason and E.J. Liddell, who, along with Murray and Baylor freshman Jeremy Sochan, comprise the “second tier” of power forwards in this draft. The following three forwards have likewise been widely praised for their ability to stretch the floor; each having started in the relative doldrums before honing in on their shots over the course of their college careers. I’m including the raw numbers next to the percentages to show the volume increase from year to year. First, 3 point %:

Player	Freshman Year	Soph Year	Junior Year	Total % Change
Tari Eason	24.1% from 3 (7-29)	35.9% from 3 (28-78)	-	+11.8% increase in 3PT%
E.J. Liddell	19.2% from 3 (5-26)	33.8% from 3 (27-80)	37.4% from 3 (46-123)	+18.2% increase in 3PT%
Keegan Murray	​29.6% from 3 (16-54)	39.8% from 3 (66-166)	-	+10.2% increase in 3PT%

And now FT%:

Player	Freshman Year	Soph Year	Junior Year	Total % Change
Tari Eason	57.4% from FT (27-47)	80.3% from FT (151-188)	-	+22.9% increase in FT%
E.J. Liddell	78.1% from FT (61-85)	74.6% from FT (126-169)	76.5% from FT (169-221)	+4.7% increase in FT%
Keegan Murray	75.5% from FT (40-53)	74.7% from FT (142-190)	-	-0.8% decrease in FT%

So here we see how the numbers shake out. In terms of raw numbers, Tari Eason’s improvement seems the most shocking. Jumping almost 12% points from three and nearly 23% from the free throw line denotes a clear leap in confidence. This is all with only a six minute-per-game jump is quite impressive. The same is true for Liddell, who steadily saw an increase over each year of his Ohio State career. All three of these players could end up being great floor spacers, on paper.

But the total % change number may still be a bit misleading. The drastic jumps make the first two players seem elite; But when you look at their final numbers, Keegan Murray still maintains the best shooter profile. He started with higher percentages than both Eason and Liddell, and so his jumps are not as drastic, but in the end shooting 40% from three with 75% from the field on massive volume is about as resounding an exclamation point as one can put on the question. Labeling his jump shot as having questions seems, to me, like a longshot, and KOC’s claim that it is “unproven” seems outright wrong to me. His three-point shooting will translate to the NBA, even if nothing else does on offense.

This is not even to speak of the actual mechanics of Murray’s shot, which represent some of the most consistent in the entire class. His 6’8 frame allows him to shoot over defenders closing out, and he possesses an almost insane level of confidence with getting the ball up. These are not shots taken, or made, by unproven shooters:

So then, we’ve established Murray’s unique transition ability as well as the six-shooter attached to his right arm. What can’t he do on the offensive end?

Not tons, but he is undoubtedly missing some important things. Do you remember the chart of how Murray got his points from the Nebraska game? Well, there was one other thing about that chart that stood out to me: of his 37 points, only two points came off of the dribble in the halfcourt.

Yes, Murray scores the ball fantastically in a variety of different ways, but if you were to lean on him to get you a bucket from the perimeter, you’d be sadly mistaken. He can clean up misses and stretch the floor. He is even good for the occasional post rep, extending his long arms over defenders with a decisive and rather effective baby-hook. But Murray lacks an elite first step, and while his handle is by no means bad, it can become clunky in more cluttered halfcourt settings. Watch here as Murray stumbles into an offensive foul because he just can’t get by his guy, even with a head of steam. He tends to be erratic off of the dribble in the half court:

Again, here Murray is trying to slice a defender with some dribble moves before lumbering into a step back jumper with a defender right in his grill. He creates no separation and forces up a bad shot because of it:

These plays give me pause in thinking Keegan Murray could become a team’s #1 player. He has the skill, but without the shake, it’s going to be really hard for him to find buckets in games where the defense tightens up. There are, however, two ways that Murray can overcome these athletic deficiencies.

The first is by adjusting his role at the next level. If Murray can commit to being a small-ball big, then perhaps these issues can be mitigated by his ability to space the floor. It’s not what you want to hear for a top of the lottery pick, but he could still fit in perfectly to an NBA offense if he was simply not used as a primary option in crunch time minutes. Elite shooters are always worth having around, especially if he could be played at the 5.

The second option, and the one that’s more probably more enticing to scouts, is for Murray to become a legit passing threat in the halfcourt. This is where I could see his game really expanding. Because of his finishing ability teams tend to collapse on Murray in the halfcourt. This leads to him sometimes putting up bad shots through double, and even triple teams. However, if a team were to use him in the intermediate area and allow him to attract help defenders, passing lanes open up.

When Iowa ran him in the mid-post, guys were open. Murray shot it a lot himself, but his gravity attracted a lot of help. Watch this Utah State rep, where Murray collapses an entire defense with his attack. While he is able to get a step on his defender and score this easily, NBA defenses’ length and strength will be harder to beat. I’d like to see him maybe swing this to one of the wide open shooters, but you can’t fault him for taking the easy layup:

If a team could get Murray the ball in the high post and run action around him, then the gravity he attracts could open up opportunities for not only shooters, but cutters also. It’s not a perfect example, but here you can see how getting Murray the ball in the middle of the defense yields multiple backdoor cutting lanes. He gets fouled, but if he could find his teammates consistently there’d be no answer:

Another one. Here he has a wide open shooter at the top of the key, as well as the backside cutter:

Perhaps you’re getting the picture now. Murray’s 10.0 Assist % is downright poor for a prospect of his caliber, and unless he can learn to leverage the gravity he attracts to help his teammates, he has a long way to go being effective in the NBA. The problem is not selfishness so much as the fact that he has never really needed to pass out of most of these situations; Usually, college defenses simply can’t contain him. But matching up with NBA defenders is going to test him in ways he hasn’t seen yet.

The team that drafts Keegan Murray, if they’re anything worth their salt, will run him through these situations and work on getting his eyes up once help collapses on him. Having someone like Myles Turner stretching the floor could prove valuable for Murray though, as Turner’s three-point shooting could take some of the help defense further away. Pascal Siakam once again might be the best model trajectory for him in this facet of the game, as Siakam has increased his AST% every year of his career as he gradually takes on a bigger role in Toronto’s offense.

In the end, projecting Murray’s passing out is truly that – a projection. It’s not good yet, and it may never be. But his spacial awareness proves good when it comes to finding room for himself, so there is at least a bit of hope that he could develop into a halfcourt nightmare. At his worst, Murray can be an elite floor spacer in the halfcourt and a menace in transition.

Finally, we need to talk about Keegan Murray’s defense. While the basis of the prospect’s upside is founded in his unique offensive skillset, Murray’s floor comes in his elite defensive instincts.

Murray boasts a 96.1 Defensive rating – only about 6 points lower than Jabari Smith and tied with Paolo Banchero. If it weren’t for Chet Holmgren’s ungodly 77.2 DRTG, Keegan Murray would have a claim for best defender at the top of the draft.

He is effective, once again, because of his instincts and length rather than sheer athleticism. Murray eats up space with his 6’11 wingspan, which (combined with good timing) yielded almost a block and a half for Iowa his freshman year in only 18 minutes a game. He upped those numbers up across the board during his sophomore campaign, finishing with 1.9 blocks and 1.3 steals a game.

Let’s see how that length comes into play in real game situations. Here we see his quick diagnosing, as well as perfect timing to save the layup at the rim. Those long arms allow him to cover so much ground in a short period of time:

Here he is denying the pass and over-pursuing a little bit before recovering to get the block. Check out how he's able to track the ball and pull it down:

On this next clip we see some amazing discipline. College players, especially underclassmen, tend to swipe at blocks. Here Murray stays straight up on his contests, scoring two consecutive blocks:

None of these blocks wow you in the same way Zion Williamson’s flying blocks did at Duke, nor do they necessarily strike fear into the opposing team. But Keegan Murray quietly provided fantastic help defense all season – and not just at the rim. Here’s Murray covering two men while his teammates trap. Once a cross court pass is made, Murray tips it up with those long arms before taking it coast to coast:

But obviously, in the modern NBA, blocks and steals alone don’t equate to good defense. Perhaps more than anything defensive versatility reigns supreme now, as teams hunt mismatches nearly every possession. Blocks are great and all, but what happens when a player gets switched out onto a quicker guard? Well, in Keegan Murray’s case, this:

Murray can move his feet well and even tip shots on the perimeter because of his instincts. On an island, Murray can swallow up smaller players. He reminds me of a toned-down PJ tucker in this way; a player who can guard 1-5 in spurts despite less-than-stellar athletic attributes. He isn’t quite as physical as Tucker, but Murray makes up for any of that with his massive wingspan. Do I think Murray will be on All-Defensive teams? Probably not. But will he be a plus defender at the next level? I think there’s a really high likelihood.

Keegan Murray is, without a doubt, one of the most confounding prospects in the 2022 draft. He’s one of the most unique guys of the past couple years, to be honest, and he’s a terrifying player to evaluate. I know everyone likes player comps, so here they are:

Keegan Murray is more skilled, less bouncy version of Pascal Siakam. He moves like Keldon Johnson in traffic, and passes like him too (which is not necessarily a complimeent). He can fill the Al Horford role defensively – making a career out of being in the right place at the right time. He's got a little Bam Adebayo to his game in transition in how he can grab it and go down the floor. At the very least he can match what Maxi Kleber does as far as perimeter shooting goes, but I think he’s closer to Lauri Markkanen in that sense. He can pick and pop, and even be run off screens at 6’8.

It'll always be a bit hard to get over the fact that Murray looks like a small forward in transition, and a power forward in the halfcourt. Unless he hones in on some ball skills, I don’t necessarily see him handling the rock too often in the halfcourt. He’s not a player that will thrive regardless of conditions – but he doesn’t need them to be perfect, either. Preferably he could play as a third option right away, perhaps a second option with some good coaching. He’s solidly behind the top five guys in my mind, but could maybe creep higher if his athletic testing numbers look good at the combine.

My final projection for Keegan Murray’s career would be sort of similar to that of Al Horford, as far as value goes. He may never make the All-Star teams that Horford did, but I think he can contribute to winning similarly to how Horford has the last few years with the Celtics.

Keegan Murray has monster numbers to go with skill. His instincts are great, and although he doesn’t have the elite tools or pedigree of Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, and Jabari Smith, I could very well see him having a better career than at least one of the bunch. To be sure, he is an elusive evaluation. If you can figure him out, you can figure out just about anyone in the draft.